Since the beginning of this year, many disputes have been underway regarding inflation. While the country’s leadership is not a single opinion. Recently, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said in his speech that, according to preliminary estimates, in 2012, the inflation rate will exceed last year’s indicator of 6%. Representatives of the Ministry of Finance, on the contrary, are sure that the growth rate of inflation will not go beyond the limits of the past year.
According to analysts, the forecast of the Prime Minister is more likely, since fairly high oil prices contribute to the emergence of additional liquidity, moreover, now, against the background of the elections, there is an increase in social financing, assistance in obtaining a loan by unemployed in Ufa and salaries. Experts believe that by the end of this year, the inflation rate may increase and amount to 6.5% to 8%. In turn, the Prime Minister – the minister promised that the authorities would try to maintain inflation within 2011.
The Ministry of Finance is not yet going to adjust the inflation forecast, referring to the fact that the growth of consumer prices will remain at the level of 2011 and will not go beyond 6%, the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov stated this. The Ministry of Finance is convinced that even the transfer of an increase in housing and communal tariffs at the 1st of 2012 will not have a significant impact on inflation growth, since it will not be as obvious as in past years, when in January the inflation rate exceeded 2%.
Independent experts also evaluate the situation in this matter in different ways. Thus, the leading economist of the Finnish Management Criminal Code, Alexander Osin, believes that, since, the country’s leadership is significantly emphasized by increasing social expenses, this can seriously affect the increase in inflation in the country. However, on the other hand, to restrain the inflation process such reasons as the outflow of capital in offshore, strengthening the state administrative-budget price regulation, as well as world prices for raw materials, where a cyclic decline in growth rate is predicted. By the end of the second half of 2012, the analyst is convinced, inflation will be about 6.5-8%.
But Alexander Plastinin, who holds the post of vice president and director of the Treasury Ubr, shares the point of view of the chairman of the Bank of Russia Alexei Ulyukaev, who says that the inflation rate for 2012 will rise to 5.5-6%. The only circumstance that can cause an increase in inflation, he considers crop failure. At the same time, the expert states that in the banking sector a decrease in the cost of loans will soon be observed, since many banks have a significant supply of liquidity, and therefore the size of betting on loans will gradually decline.