For no natives, a small remark. In Belarus, the population is more than its mass (it usually happens that it (most) is 83%) the situation in the country’s financial market and the state of economics estimates the national currency (ruble) to the US dollar exclusively. Not to the euro, not Russian ruble, but to the US dollar. As if we are not in the center of Europe, but between Mexico and Canada are there.
So after the next sharp devaluation at the beginning of the year of the Belarusian ruble to the US dollar recently, the Belarusian ruble to the US dollar has been surprising for the inexperienced in the finances of the Belarusian.
In the minds of sofa analysts and experienced by men and aunts (and the experience of crises in our country is already enough for many), the Belarusian ruble should always and every day reduce to the US dollar every day.
Where did such a craving for devaluation in the country where, again, most people receive income in rubles, is incomprehensible. In masochistic inclinations within the framework of one people I do not want to believe.
Yes, given our level of inflation and negative trade, the balance in the long run will be the devaluation to the US dollar and other currencies, where it is more stable than the foreign trade position (when, in what size and speed you can argue).
So what is happening now? But nothing beyond the ordinary. Until 2014, the Belarusian ruble rate was directed by the National Bank to the US dollar and smoothly devalued manually, without even catching up with inflation. After in 2014 this binding led to a sharp decrease in 2 times the course of the Russian ruble to our Belarusian ruble (from 300 white. rub. for 1 grew. rub. up to 150 bel. rub. for 1 grew. rub.) and the losses of all competitiveness in the Russian market (and we have competition only at a price, unfortunately), in 2015 corrected, caught up with devaluation in Russia and returned to the old mark in the course of growing. rub. within “up to 300” Bel. rub. for 1 grew. rub., which allows you to trade normally in Russia. (We are not only so tricky, we will not point a finger at Kazakhstan)
So in the last time, in view of the growth of oil prices (and not by the development of the economy), the Russian ruble began to grow stronger to the US dollar, and in recent days and the US dollar itself began to hand over to everyone (but this is a separate conversation). And taking into account the bindings to the growing. ruble, bel. rub. strengthened to the US dollar.
For clarity, look at the graph of the change in the Bel course. rub. to the US dollar and grew up. rub.
As you can see, the Belarusian ruble did not strengthen the Russian ruble, to the currency, to which there is now a binding. So you can calm down. The ruble is not strengthened.
You will ask why then the economic authorities do not go to a further decrease in the course of Bel. rub. to grow. rub., to win in the “Devalvation Race” and raise export volumes? What I think about this, I will state a little later.
